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Melbourne Cup Carnival proves a benefit for the bookies as punters scrape through

November 10, 2012

Punters around Australia will be scrounging for every available cent while bookmakers rejoice: it’s a typical scenario following a forgettable Melbourne Cup Carnival from a wagering perspective.

Data obtained from SuperTAB confirms what every punter already knew – the 2012 Melbourne Cup Carnival was nothing short of lamentable for those having a flutter over the four days of the carnival.

The Australian public had a taste of how difficult a carnival it was for the punter, with Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon starting at $22.50 – ranked 10th of the 24 runners by SuperTAB gamblers.

Across the four days, only eight favourites on SuperTAB won from 37 races – Zydeco (Wakeful Stakes, $2.90), Fawkner ( Stakes, $3.00), Villa Verde (7News Plate, $3.20), Genteel (Schweppes Tonic 1000, $3.90), Unpretentious (MSS Security Sprint, $4.00), Arinosa (TCL 3D TV Plate, $3.90), Sertorius (Antler Luggage Handicap, $3.00) and Puissance de Lune (Queen Elizabeth Stakes, $3.00).

Of those, Fawkner wasn’t the official favourite when he won last week, with Free Wheeling favourite with the bookmakers.

He did start favourite in today’s Emirates Stakes, but was nabbed on the line by $13.10 chance Happy Trails.

The longest priced winner of the week was South Australia’s Flying Skipper, who paid $51.30 when he won the Myer Spring Fashion Stakes on Crown Oaks day.

He was one of nine horses who paid more than $15 when winning over the Carnival, with other long priced winners including Fiveandahalfstar (Victoria Derby, $19.30), Appearance (Myer Classic, $43.80), Kasane (TAB Trophy, $28.70), Koonoomoo (Herald Sun Stakes, $23.30), Green Moon (Melbourne Cup, $22.50), General Truce (Fashions on the Field Stakes, $16.30), Direct Charge (Maribyrnong Plate, $17.90) and Eximius (Hilton Hotels Stakes, $31.80).

The average winning dividend for each race over the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival was $12.49, which was an improvement on last year’s average of $12.53 but not as friendly as the 2010 average of $11.44.

However, last year’s results were skewed by Emirates Stakes Day, which saw seven of the nine winners start at double figure odds. Despite Black Caviar’s win in the Patinack Farm Classic at $1.04, the average winning dividend on the day was $21.46.

This year, Emirates Stakes Day proved the most favourable day for punters with an average dividend of $11.22.

Melbourne Cup Day’s average payout was $11.99, while an average dividend of $12.18 confronted punters on Victoria Derby Day.

On paper, Crown Oaks Day looked the harshest result with an average dividend of $14.64, thanks largely to Flying Skipper’s unexpected win.

In the last three years, only Emirates Stakes Day last year proved rougher for punters.

Of course, as there is every year, there were stories of incredible luck, none more so than the Sportsbet client who turned 8c into more than $77000 when she nabbed the first four on the Melbourne Cup (Green Moon, Fiorente, Jakkalberry, Kelinni).

For the rest of us, we will walk home barefoot, dreaming that our jackpot is right around the corner – hopefully, it may come during the Melbourne Cup Carnival next year.

To see the complete list of dividends over the carnival, as well as the list of average dividends for the last three years, click here.

One Comment leave one →
  1. ray permalink
    November 10, 2012 9:03 pm

    I wonder why with all the fixing of races.look at damien Oliver laughing at us all.

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